Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
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