Just two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.
He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.
How was your night?
It was necessary because they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.
You know, it was possible in which election day went somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.
How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?
He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.
He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability
Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?
It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.
A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?
Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.
You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?
Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.
Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.
He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.
Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?
In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.
Prior to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?
There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.
Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?
Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.
However I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.
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